With the Trestles event over, and new world champions crowned in spectacular fashion – Jon Jon Florence for the men, and Caity Simmers for the Women – it’s now time to look forward.
A look forward to the BIG change coming to next years final five event, namely a location shift 5,539 miles away to Cloudbreak in Fiji.
This cataclysmic shift is going to have some significant side effects, none bigger than the impact it could have on Felipe Toledo’s chances of ever winning another world title.
You see, Felipe is hands down the best surfer in the world in small waves, and he’s damn handy in any waves that revolve around turns, and you know what, he’s even a menace in right hand tubes too.
But one thing he’s not very good at, in fact one thing he sucks at, is big barreling left handers breaking over reef.
Everyone’s got their weaknesses right?
Well, this is his.
And with the event shifting to Cloudbreak, his chances of ever clinching another world title could have just evaporated.
Let’s take a look at some stats.
Ok, so we don’t have a tonne of historical data from Cloudbreak as its been off tour for a while, but we do have a bunch of data from waves that require a similar skillset – namely a monster set of balls (or ovaries), and an ability to ride big tubes over shallow reefs.
Felipe’s results over the past six years look like this:
- Tahiti Pro 2023: Round of 16
- Pipe Masters 2023: Quarter Finals
- Pipe Masters 2022: Round of 16
- Tahiti Pro 2022: Opening Round
- Pipe Masters 2021: Round of 32
- Tahiti Pro 2019: Round of 16
- Pipe Masters 2019: Round of 32
- Tahiti Pro 2018: Semi Final
- Pipe Masters 2018: Round 3
These results tell a sobering story.
In waves of consequence, Felipe really doesn’t fair very well.
Let’s compare that to his mastery in small waves, at let’s say, hmmm, at a destination like Trestles:
- Trestles 2023: 1st
- Trestles 2022: 1st
- Trestles 2021: 2nd
- Trestles 2020: Not held
- Trestles 2019: Covid year
- Trestles 2018: Not held
- Trestles 2017: 1st
- Trestles 2016: 3rd
He’s bagged three wins, a second and a third in the past five events at Trestles, that’s some frickin record.
Now lets compare that to his likely two biggest challengers Jon Florence and Gabriel Medina in those waves of consequence.
These are the guys that he’s likely going to be up against, and here’s how they’ve faired in the same time period.
Jon Florence:
- Pipe Masters 2023: Quarter Finals
- Tahiti Pro 2023: Injured
- Pipe Masters 2022: Quarter Finals
- Pipe Masters 2021: 1st
- Pipe Masters 2019: Quarter Finals
- Tahiti Pro 2019: injured
- Pipe Masters 2018: Injured
- Tahiti Pro 2018: injured
Gabriel Medina:
- Pipe Masters 2023: Round of 16
- Tahiti Pro 2023: Injured
- Pipe Masters 2022: Injured
- Pipe Masters 2021: 2nd
- Pipe Masters 2019: 2nd
- Tahiti Pro 2019: 2nd
- Pipe Masters 2018: 1st
- Tahiti Pro 2018: 1st
In stark contrast to Felipe these results highlight some crazy things.
First up, these two surfers excel in waves of consequence (when they’re not too busy being injured that is), and secondly, Gabe pretty much wins all the time.
Couple these crazy stats with the prospect of a best of three format and it’d appear that Felipe has next to no chance of winning ever again.
What can he do to improve his odds?
Well lets be fair, it’s much harder to surf as technically well as Felipe does in small waves than it is to get tubed over dry reef, so we know he’s got the natural ability to be great at it.
But he’s got to get over the fear barrier to get there.
Easier said than done, and not everyone enjoys hucking themselves into 8ft double-ups over dry reef.
But day to day exposure, and a will to adapt and familiarise himself in these conditions could see him turn the tide on his bad form in big, hollow waves, but he’s got to want it.
Is he willing to eat that shit sandwich and go spend the time he needs to master these waves?
Or will he be content bagging the two world titles and calling it a day?
It remains to be seen, but unless there’s some big changes the odds of Felipe ever winning another world title are slim to none.
– Rowan
ROWAN CLIFFORD
Rowan is the co-founder of Surf Hub.
